At first glance, a team that lost 103 games this past season, like the Washington Nationals, may seem like it needs everything fixed. Like anything in disrepair there are levels of how broken it can be. You’d immediately stop driving your car if smoke started pouring out from underneath the hood. But if you’re short on cash and lazy, you might drive around with a stripped windshield wiper that puts small scratches in the glass every time you turn them on (like I did one snowy winter in Syracuse, NY).
In baseball, there’s still many people responsible for fixing teams that don’t know what their looking for. Washingtonians dealt with one such person who at times seemed to base personnel decisions on how good a player looked in a Nats uniform. I’m going to diagnose very clinically using statistics where the Nationals problems are and how they can fix them. I’m going to assume my gracious readers have some familiarity with these statistics, but I will post helpful links with explanations when possible.
Before calling for the signing any free agent or handing out any pink slips to current players, let’s take a 30,000 foot view of the Nationals. Today, I’m just going to look at everyday players and leave the pitching mess for another day.
Let’s start with the good news. The Nationals are not a bad hitting team, and really have only one hole in their batting order. Using Weighted Runs Above Average (A very brief explanation here), the Nationals have an above average hitter at every position except 2B. Now this is massaging the numbers a bit. I’m counting Adam Dunn (35.9 wRAA) as a first basemen and guys like Ian Desmond (I count him as a SS) and Jesus Flores put up above average numbers in very limited playing time (Desmond had 3.2 wRAA, Flores had 4.1). It’s possible that Desmond and Flores were playing above their heads and would have reverted to the mean over time. Cristian Guzman, who spent the most time at shortstop this season, is far below average (and the worst hitter on the team) with a wRAA of -12.5. As a rough rule, 10 runs are worth about 1 win, so, Guzman costs his team one more win than an average player. If a team full of average hitters and average fielders win 81 games in a season, a team full of Guzmans would only win 73 games assuming that they play average defense.
But, the Nats weren’t an average defensive team this past year. They were a horrible team on defense. The only players who were above average on defense, as defined by positive UZR runs, were Ryan Zimmerman, Desmond (at SS, he was below average at 2B), Nyjer Morgan, and Willie Harris (in LF). Adum Dunn contributed -36.4 UZR runs. 10 of these runs also convert to about 1 win. So, Dunn basically cost his team 3 and a half wins for his play in the field (The “good” news is that if Dunn had played all of his games at first base, he might have only cost the Nats 1.5 games). Guzman was also a below average fielder -2.5 UZR runs). I’ll dedicate much more time to him and the shortstop position in my next post.
Not sure what conclusions you’ve come to. The lineup is OK, but to suggest it is above average is really misleading. Only 3 of the guys you’ve used (I am presuming) played full time for the Nats last year (Zimm, Dunn and Guzman). Nyjer played close to full time in the NL.
The Nats need a quality corner outfielder, and an outfield of Willingham, Nyjer and this newcomer could be pretty decent.
There’s a little reason to have hope in Jesus Flores.
He did hit .301 before being hurt last year, but in 2008, he got off to a great start also, and tapered off badly as the season wore on. Jesus was hitting above .320 through mid-June 2008, but by mid-August was under .270 and finished the season at .256.
So for capable everyday major leaguers, we’ve got 3B, 1B, CF, LF and, hopefully, C covered. RF is a free agent waiting to be signed, we have no one on the roster major league capable to fill that spot. Dukes or Kearns? Nope. Justin Maxwell? He hit .233 and hit only 7 HR’s as a 235 lb 24 year old in AA in 2008. In 2009, he was .242 and 13 as a 25 year old in AAA. There’s not much prospect left in a guy turning 26 who has not had success in AA and AAA.
The middle infield is in the hands and hopes of Ian Desmond (who certainly has promise, hitting .330 as a 23 year old splitting time between AA and AAA) and Alberto González, who will be 27 years old next year, and has consistently had terrible OBP’s throughout his professional career (about .311 combined the past two years counting both his MLB and AAA stats). Cristian Guzmán has got to go, or at least sit down. He’s a liability at the plate and in the field. In 10 MLB seasons, he’s averaged an OBP of .306 and a SLG of .386 (to go along with his 20 errors last season).
So I’m seeing a real serious need for a quality RF and a quality middle infielder, and it seems that the only possible way these needs could be met for 2010 is via free agency. Will this happen? We’ve just got to wait and see.
One scary longer term aspect is that if the Nats are on a pace to lose 90+ games next year, a very real possibility with this lineup and the worst pitching staff in the league, then they also will lose Adam Dunn prior to the trade deadline. His 2 year deal runs out next September, and he won’t re-sign here unless there’s been real progress and some real promise of competing in 2011. So Rizzo will deal him for prospects.
So I think the notion that the lineup is OK hinges entirely on:
1 – Who is playing right field
2 – Who is playing shortstop
3 – Is Nyjer Morgan capable of a repeat performance
Without real positive answers to at least 2 of these questions, the lineup has no chance of being any better than average.
Look forward to learning your thoughts about the pitching staff.
Nice post. I agree. We really NEED a SS. I think we better get a C and a RF. I hope we are a good defensive and offensive team next year. A good C and SS will deinately help the pitching staff. Will be looking forward to next post.
Sparky, 2011 hope MAY not so much be tied into 2010 first half performance–IF the Nats can get an impact starter and either detwiler or stammen step up to at least a Lannan level of efficiency there would be hope in 2011. I base this on the return of Jordan Zimmermann and the development of Stephen Strasburg both having (hopefully) huge impacts on the rotation in 2011. I think the hope is a winning record in 2011–very attainable with bullpen improvement in both this and the following offseason and the resigning of Dunn. Maybe a one year stop gap at SS wouldn’t be terrible if Espinosa can come through? I don’t know enough about him though to say how realistic that is.