With Guz, you lose

Shortstop is the first position the Washington Nationals need to fix to become competitive. The incumbent at the position Cristian Guzman, a year removed from an All-Star appearance (although, if we were to really look at the numbers we would see that he was about average at the plate and a little below average in the field), was one of the worst position players for the Nats. In 2009, Guzman had a wRAA of -12.5 and -2.5 UZR runs. When 10 of these “runs” mean you contribute about one win to your team’s record, being in negative territory is obviously not a good place to be.

Guzman also had a weighted on-base average of .301. I want to explain this number a little. The wOBA is a weighted average that looks at the relative values of all outcomes at the plate in terms of how often that outcome turns into a run. You get more credit for a home run, which always turns into a run, than a double, which sometimes doesn’t. The nice thing about wOBA is that you interpret it the same was as on-base percentage. The average OBP usually falls between, .330 and .340. Guzman’s .301 wOBA is therefore, awful. Since his career wOBA is also .301, this means that Guzman year after year gives you horrendous results at the plate. We can understand this number, because he never walks (2.9% of his 2009 plate appearances) and he doesn’t hit for power (.390 slugging percentage). Pair Guzman’s poor hitting with his below average fielding and the Nationals need a change at shortstop.

There’s two ways the Nats can fill this need, let Ian Desmond, who played 17 games at short last season, step in. Or let Desmond play second and fill the shortstop hole in free agency. Based on what’s available in the market, I’d recommend letting Desmond play SS, where he was above average in the field (although I’m not comfortable drawing any conclusions about his ability there because of the small sample size).  I say this, because the free agent market is short on players who would be an improvement over Guzman at shortstop. Only Marco Scutaro had an above average wOBA last year (.354) and positive UZR runs per 150 games (.1). I wouldn’t be comfortable taking the risk of not being able to sign Scutaro and being left with someone who wouldn’t be an upgrade.

At 2B, the list of players that had above average seasons last season contains some familiar names: Ronnie Belliard, Felipe Lopez, Juan Uribe, and Craig Counsell. Belliard really has been an average player (which is not a bad thing) his entire career, and contrary to popular belief was average or above average during his stint with the Nats (a .369 wOBA in 2008!). Even if I recommended bringing Belly back, I don’t think it would happen. Sometimes change is good, and I think the front office wants and needs to go in another direction, to at least change the fans’ perceptions of this team. As for Lopez, I’ll let a favorite website of mine explain why the Nats should avoid the temptation of bringing him back after a good 2009 season (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/felipe-lopezs-outstanding-season). Counsell will be 39 years old during the 2010 season. Even though he had an above average year in the field with a 13.8 UZR/150 and he was about average at the plate (.336 wOBA), at some point he’s going to decline because of age and the Nationals need to find somebody who’s more than a one season stop gap. That leaves Juan Uribe, who despite fantastic numbers in 2009 has a career wOBA of .311. Might be a case of playing for a new, bigger, better contract.

So, do the Nats have no hope? Must they choose from a flawed free agent class? The answer is no, there’s actually not one but three players left off the first list that should be the Nats free agent targets at 2B. They are Akinori Iwamura, Orlando Hudson, and Placido Polanco. Iwamura was left off the original list because his UZR/150 was -.2 in 2009. That’s still an improvement over Guzman, plus Iwamura gives you an wOBA of .338. If you look at the wRAA and total UZR runs, he’d be about a 2 win improvement over Guzman. Hey, it’s a start.

Hudson is about the same in the field as Guzman with a UZR/150 of -2.9 but he adds so much more with his bat. His wOBA of .342 last year is fantastic and not out of line of his career averages. Altogether he also gives you about 2 more wins than Guzman, plus he’ll only be 32 next year, so he’s still should have some productive years left in his career.

Polanco is the best fielder of the bunch (UZR/150 of 8.5), but he’s below average with the bat and will be 34 years old.

The move the Nationals should make is one they should’ve made when he was available last year. Sign Hudson, and break Desmond in during his rookie year at SS. Add two to the win column: 2010 Nats, 61-101.

Out of Commission

I’m off to Auburn, AL for some Tiger Drinks and adding “War” to the beginning of every noun I use (War Eagle, War Chili Dog, War Airport Waiting Area). That means no updates until probably Sunday or Monday. Thanks for your patience while I get acclimated to writing 500+ words a day after work.

Where to Start?

At first glance, a team that lost 103 games this past season, like the Washington Nationals, may seem like it needs everything fixed. Like anything in disrepair there are levels of how broken it can be. You’d immediately stop driving your car if smoke started pouring out from underneath the hood. But if you’re short on cash and lazy, you might drive around with a stripped windshield wiper that puts small scratches in the glass every time you turn them on (like I did one snowy winter in Syracuse, NY).

In baseball, there’s still many people responsible for fixing teams that don’t know what their looking for. Washingtonians dealt with one such person who at times seemed to base personnel decisions on how good a player looked in a Nats uniform. I’m going to diagnose very clinically using statistics where the Nationals problems are and how they can fix them. I’m going to assume my gracious readers have some familiarity with these statistics, but I will post helpful links with explanations when possible.

Before calling for the signing any free agent or handing out any pink slips to current players, let’s take a 30,000 foot view of the Nationals. Today, I’m just going to look at everyday players and leave the pitching mess for another day.

Let’s start with the good news. The Nationals are not a bad hitting team, and really have only one hole in their batting order. Using Weighted Runs Above Average (A very brief explanation here), the Nationals have an above average hitter at every position except 2B. Now this is massaging the numbers a bit. I’m counting Adam Dunn (35.9 wRAA) as a first basemen and guys like Ian Desmond (I count him as a SS) and Jesus Flores put up above average numbers in very limited playing time (Desmond had 3.2 wRAA, Flores had 4.1). It’s possible that Desmond and Flores were playing above their heads and would have reverted to the mean over time. Cristian Guzman, who spent the most time at shortstop this season, is far below average (and the worst hitter on the team) with a wRAA of -12.5. As a rough rule, 10 runs are worth about 1 win, so, Guzman costs his team one more win than an average player. If a team full of average hitters and average fielders win 81 games in a season, a team full of Guzmans would only win 73 games assuming that they play average defense.

But, the Nats weren’t an average defensive team this past year. They were a horrible team on defense. The only players who were above average on defense, as defined by positive UZR runs, were Ryan Zimmerman, Desmond (at SS, he was below average at 2B), Nyjer Morgan, and Willie Harris (in LF). Adum Dunn contributed -36.4 UZR runs. 10 of these runs also convert to about 1 win. So, Dunn basically cost his team 3 and a half wins for his play in the field (The “good” news is that if Dunn had played all of his games at first base, he might have only cost the Nats 1.5 games). Guzman was also a below average fielder -2.5 UZR runs). I’ll dedicate much more time to him and the shortstop position in my next post.